The 4.8 Pawn Swing: Pragg's Missed Endgame Win - Superbet Croatia Rapid 2025
In this complex endgame between Firouzja and Praggnanandhaa at the Superbet Croatia Rapid tournament, one seemingly logical move caused a massive 4.8 pawn evaluation swing.
In the high-stakes world of elite chess, games are often won and lost on the edge of a knife. A single moment of imprecision can unravel hours of brilliant play.
Today, we're diving deep into one such moment from a clash between two of the world's brightest young stars, Alireza Firouzja and Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa, at the Superbet Croatia Rapid tournament.
In this complex endgame, with the clock ticking and tension mounting, Praggnanandhaa, playing Black, had a clear, decisive win in his grasp. The engine evaluation showed an advantage of nearly -5, the equivalent of being up a full rook. Yet, one seemingly logical move later, the advantage vanished, and the evaluation swung by a massive 4.8 pawns, settling at a dead-even position.
How can a single move have such a dramatic impact? This position is a masterclass in endgame calculation, threat assessment, and the critical difference between a flashy check and a quiet, deadly threat.
For any intermediate player looking to sharpen their evaluation skills, this moment is pure gold. Let's break it down.
🏁 Position Breakdown: A Race Against Time
Let's set the board. We are at move 41, and it is Black's turn to play.
⚪ White's Arsenal
- 👑 King on e5: A powerful attacker controlling the center
- 🏰 Rook on d7: Controls the seventh rank, restricting Black's king
- 🐎 Knight on f5: Supporting the g7-pawn and eyeing weak squares
- ⚔️ Pawn on g7: The star piece - one square from queening!
- ⚔️ Pawn on f3: Additional support structure
⚫ Black's Counter-Forces
- 👑 King on h7: Under pressure but still fighting
- 🏰 Rook on c3: Active piece supporting the b-pawn advance
- 🗼 Bishop on g8: The crucial guardian preventing g8=Q
- ⚔️ Pawn on b3: Black's winning trump card
- ⚔️ Pawn on h6: Defensive structure
Material is equal, but this is a dynamic race: Can Black's b-pawn queen before White's g-pawn does, or before White delivers checkmate?
⚡ The Critical Moment: Check vs. Threat
This is where the game was decided. With a clear win on the board, Pragg had to find the precise continuation.
❌ The Played Move: 41...Rc5+?
On the surface, this move makes perfect sense. It's a check, the most forcing type of move in chess. It forces White to respond, gains a tempo, and seems to disrupt White's plan.
However, this check is a fatal imprecision. After White's only legal move, 42. Kf4!, the situation changes dramatically. White's king doesn't just escape the check; it improves its position immensely. Now on f6, the king adds more pressure, gets closer to the action, and supports new threats against Black's king.
The game continued 42...b2, but now White has 43. Rd1!, calmly defending the queening square. The winning advantage has completely evaporated.
✅ The Winning Move: 41...b2!
This quiet pawn push is devastatingly strong. Instead of giving a temporary check, Black creates an unstoppable, permanent threat: the pawn will become a queen on the very next move. White is now forced to react to Black's agenda.
Let's see why this is so much better:
If White tries to stop the pawn with 42. Rd1, Black unleashes the beautiful follow-up 42...Rc1! This is a brilliant deflection. White's rook on d1 cannot move to capture the rook on c1 because the b-pawn would queen. If White plays 43. Rd2 to try and trade, Black simply plays 43...Rxd2 44.Kxd2 b1=Q, and Black wins easily.
The move 41...b2 forces White into a zugzwang-like state where every attempt to defend one threat allows the other to succeed.
By choosing the check, Black gave White the single tempo needed to consolidate and save the game. The evaluation swung from -4.8 (winning for Black) to 0.0 (dead equal) in a single move!
🎯 5 Practical Evaluation Tips from This Position
This single moment offers a wealth of practical lessons. Here are five evaluation tips you can apply to your own games.
1️⃣ Prioritize Unstoppable Threats Over Checks
The move 41...Rc5+ was a check, but it allowed the opponent to improve his position. The move 41...b2 was a quiet move that created a lethal, long-term threat of promotion. Always ask yourself: "Does my check help my opponent? Is there a quieter move that creates a problem they cannot solve?"
2️⃣ King Activity is a Decisive Endgame Weapon
Notice how White's king on e5 was a major asset, controlling the center and participating in the attack. After 42. Kf6!, it became even more powerful. Don't leave it passively on the back rank. Contrast this with Black's king on h7, which was a constant target and a defensive liability.
3️⃣ Evaluate the Relative Power of Passed Pawns
This endgame was a race between White's g7-pawn and Black's b3-pawn. The winning plan involved recognizing that Black's pawn, when correctly supported by its rook, was the more dangerous of the two. When you see passed pawns for both sides, evaluate their speed, support, and the defensive resources available to stop them.
4️⃣ Assess Piece Coordination
Before 41...Rc5+, White's pieces were well-placed but not perfectly coordinated to stop the ...b2 and ...Rc1 plan. After the check and 42. Kf6!, White's King, Rook, and Knight began working in perfect harmony. When evaluating a position, look at how well your pieces work together.
5️⃣ Calculate Forcing Variations Accurately
Both ...Rc5+ and ...b2 are forcing moves that demand a response. The mistake wasn't in looking for a forcing move, but in failing to calculate the consequences just one or two moves deeper. In critical moments, take your time to visualize your opponent's best replies to your top candidate moves.
🏆 Conclusion: The Fine Margins of Victory
The game between Firouzja and Praggnanandhaa ultimately ended in a draw, a testament to Firouzja's resilience and a painful reminder of the thin line between victory and a missed opportunity.
Key Lessons from This Position:
• 🎯 Not all forcing moves are best - Sometimes quiet moves create bigger threats than flashy checks
• 👑 King activity matters - In endgames, your king should be an active participant, not a passive observer
• ⚖️ Precision under pressure - The difference between winning and drawing often comes down to calculating just one move deeper
By studying moments like these, we learn to look beyond the obvious, calculate more deeply, and appreciate the profound logic that governs the 64 squares.
Ready to Test Your Skills?
Want to sharpen your own positional judgment and avoid costly mistakes like this one? Try Chesstimate, where you can practice evaluating complex positions and see how your instincts stack up against the engine. You'll develop the intuition needed to find the winning move when it matters most.